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Mr. Trump’s Losing Economic Game Plan
La habilidad o viveza de los políticos tramposos consiste en hacer que la gente o sea los pobres que en todas partes son la mayoría y por lo tanto los que deciden las elecciones voten en contra de sus propios intereses y en favor de los intereses de los mismos políticos o de los que les pagan.
Así en América Latina los politiqueros populistas al estilo de Chávez y los Kirchner lograron convencer a muchos de que están mejor recibiendo dádivas ocasionales del gobierno que desempeñando un trabajo y recibiendo un salario correspondiente a su esfuerzo y en los US los antipopulistas, que son los del extremo opuesto también han logrado convencer a muchos pobres que los programas sociales que podrían beneficiarlos a ellos son dañinos y hay que eliminarlos.Así vemos que el Partido Republicano, cuya inmensa mayoría de votantes son personas de bajos ingresos ha conseguido que sus seguidores estén en contra de los programas sociales de los que precisamente dependen y por eso se da el contra sentido de que los que no tienen para comprarse un seguro médico privado, -que es el 99 % de la población- voten y vociferen en contra de los programas para la salud como el Medicare, el Medicaid y el Obamacare, que los que están jubilados sin otros ingresos voten en contra de mejorar el Seguro Social, que los que tienen un empleo que no les da para vivir voten en contra de subir el salario mínimo, que los que no tienen con que pagar los 50,000 dólares al año que cuesta una universidad privada y tienen hijos voten a favor de los recortes para la educación y al final terminen votando para que los mega millonarios, que son poquitos y no pasan del 1 x 1000 del total de la población pero reciben la inmensa mayoría del ingreso y poseen casi todo el capital del país paguen menos impuestos que ellos mismos¿Como consiguen manejar a sus masas para que hagan lo que evidentemente es un harakiri? Bueno, he allí el meollo, la habilidad de los políticos. Los del PR llevan una campaña de décadas explotando el racismo y convenciendo a sus bases, en su inmensa mayoría blancos pobres y sin mucha educación que los programas sociales benefician solo a los negros y a las otras minorías y que ellos nada perderían al recortarlos. La premisa es falsa pues son muchos más los blancos que dependen de esos programas como el MedicAid que los negros, pero el cuento funciona. En otros casos usan la Biblia, el miedo y el fanatismo para manejarlos con el cuento del pecado, el aborto, la homosexualidad etc... y en otros casos explotan los complejos y las confusiones de pobres que se creen ricos, como el famoso caso de Joe The Plumber, que decía que no podía votar por los Demócratas porque esos le iban a cobrar demasiados impuestos cuando se hiciera millonario con un negocio que algun día iba a poner.Ahora vemos que el plan económico de Trump, un mega millonario que se presenta como un Robin Hood del Siglo XXI es la esencia de esa misma receta: eliminar totalmente el impuesto de herencia, (La ley ya permite heredar sin impuestos 1.3 Millones), para beneficiar a aproximadamente 5,000 familias en un país de 360 millones, ponerle impuestos a las importaciones de acero para beneficiar a uno de sus patrocinadores que es acerero y que así podría disparar los precios a su gusto y antojo, parar las energías renovables para beneficiar a otro socio que es fraquero que así podría vender el barril de petróleo otra vez en 100 dólares y bajarle los impuestos al 1 x1000, lo que necesariamente significa más recortes en el área social.El plan de Trump beneficia directamente a unos 5,000 millonarios, pero como con 5,000 votos no se gana necesita engañar a unos cuantos millones de los pobres que saldrían perjudicados con su programa. Veremos si tiene la habilidad suficiente.Donald Trump said on Monday that he wanted to usher in “economic renewal,” but most of his proposals would hurt the economy, rack up huge deficits, accelerate climate change and leave the country isolated from the world.In a speech billed as a blueprint for stimulating growth and creating jobs, Mr. Trump offered a grab bag of ideas that borrow from discredited supply-side economics, the fossil fuel industry’s wish list and “America First” isolationism. He also criticized Hillary Clinton and President Obama for what he called their “job-killing, tax-raising, poverty-inducing” agenda. It was vintage Trump, full of promises of greatness and victories backed by fantastical proposals.Mr. Trump told the Detroit Economic Club that he would cut taxes to an extent not seen since Ronald Reagan was in the White House. He said he would slash the corporate tax rate to 15 percent, arguing that the current statutory 35 percent is one of the highest among developed countries. He did not mention that the average effective corporate tax rate was 18.1 percent in 2015, including state and local taxes, according to the White House and the Treasury Department. He claims he would help workers by getting rid of the estate tax, though repealing it would have almost no effect on working families. Under current law, that tax doesn’t touch 99.8 percent of all estates because it applies only to that portion of an estate that exceeds $5.4 million for an individual or $10.9 million for a married couple.The big problem with Mr. Trump’s tax ideas is that they would leave a multitrillion-dollar deficit for no benefit. Proponents of supply-side economics argue that cutting tax rates encourages people to work and businesses to invest. But the gains are much more modest than proponents claim because many businesses won’t invest unless demand for their products is growing and many people are not motivated by lower tax rates to work more.Sign Up for the Opinion Today Newsletter
Every weekday, get thought-provoking commentary from Op-Ed columnists, The Times editorial board and contributing writers from around the world.On the other hand, significant tax cuts exact very real costs. Mr. Trump’s previous tax plan, released last year, would have reduced federal revenue by $9.5 trillion over 10 years, according to the Tax Policy Center, meaning that Mr. Trump would have to slash government spending or increase borrowing substantially. George W. Bush pushed big tax cuts through Congress in 2001 and 2003 with the promises of strong growth that never materialized.Mr. Trump also promises to take a machete to existing federal regulations and put a moratorium on new rules. He wants to get rid of environmental policies that he says are driving up the cost of electricity by restricting the production and use of coal and other fossil fuels. In fact, electricity rates, adjusted for inflation, have increased just 2.2 percent, to 12.82 cents per kilowatt-hour, from 2008 to 2015 and are expected to decline to 12.64 cents this year, according to the federalEnergy Information Administration.Increasing fossil fuel production, and the carbon dioxide emissions associated with it, is exactly the wrong strategy at a time when the world has become increasingly concerned about global warming and its disastrous consequences. But this is of little concern to Mr. Trump, who has dismissed climate change as a hoax and whose “energy revolution,” as he outlined it on Monday, made no mention of carbon-free renewable energy sources.
On trade, Mr. Trump renewed his pledge to kill the Trans-Pacific Partnership, an agreement that Mr. Obama negotiated with 11 countries. Mr. Trump claims he can bring back millions of manufacturing jobs to the United States by slapping retaliatory tariffs against China for manipulating its currency, offering illegal subsidies to its exporters and stealing intellectual property from American companies. But such actions would do nothing to recreate jobs that have been replaced by automation, and companies could move production to other developing countries. Mr. Trump’s earlier pledge to put a 45 percent tariff on all Chinese goods would almost certainly start a trade war that would harm American industries that export goods to China.Mr. Trump considers himself a businessman, uniquely capable of improving the economy. But this list of misguided and risky proposals would reduce economic growth while showering the rich with tax breaks.C'Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook and Twitter (@NYTOpinion), and sign up for the Opinion Today newsletter.A version of this editorial appears in print on August 9, 2016, on page A22 of the New York edition with the headline: Mr. Trump’s Scary Economic Blueprint. Today's Paper|Subscribe
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